Probabilistic attribution
Natalya Yefimenko avatar
Written by Natalya Yefimenko
Updated over a week ago

Probabilistic attribution

The Apple Inc. policy conducted in 2021 prohibits attribution platforms to store information, which can help identify the end-user. It becomes impossible to pass click ID, IP, and User Agent to the advertiser and get it back. The ordinary process of S2S conversions tracking on Affise means receiving click ID via the postback link.

That’s why Affise offers a new system of conversion tracking, which is Probabilistic attribution.

If your advertiser uses one of the attribution platforms that is impacted by Apple’s policy, it means you and all your affiliates should use Probabilistic attribution.

Probabilistic attribution of clicks

This scheme is useful when the chain of traffic sources isn't long. You have no more than four traffic sources.

  1. In Offers > a certain offer > offer preview page, generate and send the Affise tracking link to the affiliate. You can use the parameters listed here to get some values if needed.

  2. Your advertiser should give you a link, which is to be added in Offers > a certain offer > Tracking. You can use the macros listed here.

    ⚠️ Offer_id and pid are mandatory.

    Edit offer _ Buzzworx - Google Chrome 2022-09-12 at 1.18.51 PM

⚠️ Technically, it is possible to pass all information about clicks, which Affise stores. However, according to Apple's policy, attribution platforms shall not store this data on their side. It means you can still send your IP, User Agent, and other unique information to the advertiser, but they shouldn't store this information, and you can’t receive it via a postback. As a result, it is useless to pass the unique information about a user.

Probabilistic attribution of conversions

The process of conversion tracking has many peculiarities in the case of Probabilistic Attribution.

  1. Get a postback link sample in Offers > a certain offer > Postbacks.


2. Update your probabilistic postback URL with the necessary parameters. Send the postback to your advertiser.

⚠️ Offer_id and pid are mandatory.

The sample of the postback link for Appsflyer:{postback_id}&goal={event_name}&offer_id={af_c_id}&pid={af_siteid}&country={country_code}&timestamp={attributed_touch_hour}&sub2={af_sub_siteid}&action_timestamp={event_hour}&platform={platform}

The sample of the postback link for other tracking/attribution platforms:{transaction_id}&goal={event_name}&offer_id={offer_id}&pid={pid}&country={country}&timestamp={timestamp}&sub2={aff_sub2}&platform={platform}


You can check the statistics on probabilistic attribution in Statistics > Server postbacks/Conversions.

If you don’t have both mandatory parameters in the postback link, the conversion is not registered. You see an error in the Server postbacks slice of Statistics.

All conversions registered with the usage of Probabilistic Attribution have a relevant comment [Probabilistic Attribution] in the Conversions slice of Statistics.

As there is no need to get a click ID via the Affise postback link, the conversion received doesn't have the click ID. However, it always has an action ID.

An action ID is generated in two ways:

  • An advertiser sent some value to your action_id= parameter. This exact value is displayed in the Conversion ID column in Conversions slice.

  • An advertiser didn’t send you their value. In this case, Affise generates a specific value for this exact conversion. This value is displayed in the Conversion ID column of the Conversions slice.

Probabilistic attribution and anti-fraud tools

If you use the Click&Impression session lifespan or Minimal click&Impression session lifespan options, you are to add the timestamp parameter to your postback to let the system get the time when the click was created.


⚠️ The date and time should be passed in Unix format via this parameter.

There is a peculiarity when it comes to integration with AppsFlyer: you need to use two parameters:

  • timestamp - Time of click creation in Unix format.

  • action_timestamp - Time of conversion creation in YYYY-MM-DD HH;SS format.

Both values are rounded down to the nearest hour on the Appsflyer side. It means there could be the following situation: click created at 14:00 and conversion created at 14.00, however, the actual time is 14:15 and 14:55. Mind that when setting up the Click session lifespan and Minimal click session lifespan options.

If you want to increase the security level of the tracking process, you are to use only the Allowed IPs option.

  • In Offers > a certain offer > Postbacks:

  • In Advertisers > Advertisers Management > a certain advertiser.


You can automatically add all IPs of Appsflyer by clicking the Add Appsflyer's server IPs or insert all the needed IPs manually.

The anti-fraud tools that do not work with probabilistic attribution:

  • Secure postback code. The secure parameter doesn’t work for probabilistic postback.

  • Unique IP only and Reject not unique IP.

Probabilistic attribution and payouts selection

When you use probabilistic attribution, the payouts selection is performed differently. There are three parameters for the Affise postback link, which help the system select the appropriate payout:


Country where the conversion was made


OS of the end-user, who made the conversion


The sub2 value

If you have restrictions in the relevant fields (Country, OS, Sub2), use those parameters. Without them, the system sees the information as All countries, All OSes, All sub2 values, which influences the process of payouts selection.

It is possible to receive only the sub2 value, although you can pass other subs to the advertiser via their tracking link. You have to use sub2 in the postback link if you have some relevant restrictions in payouts.

⚠️ Don't use restrictions in other fields (Cities, Devices, other subs), because the conversion can be declined.

Please contact the Affise Customer Support team regarding all raised questions via the e-mail: [email protected].

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